Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
