Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
